Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
How do those in power prevent their opponents from joining forces?
The government uses the fact that its opponents often have different goals, identities and mutual distrust. It can offer one group concession or access to an institution, present another as extreme, expose the third to punishment, and send a message to everyone that their partner will leave them as soon as the risk rises.
Surveillance, infiltration and attacks on the organizers make it even more difficult for people to exchange reliable information and make a binding agreement. Thus, the common interest remains weaker than the fear that someone else will give up first. Resistance therefore requires more than general dissatisfaction: a limited common goal, rules of cooperation and a way to resolve disputes are needed. Even the widest alliance is not automatically successful; if there is no clear agreement on the first steps and behavior after the victory, it can be immediately weakened.
People are difficult to unite when the dominant media do not see each other, when the organizers bear the greatest risk, when opposition groups are divided and when work or help depends on the local network. In Serbia, pressures on activists, digital surveillance, attacks on credibility and attempts to present each group as a party or party are added. The goal is not necessarily to put out all dissatisfaction, but to remain scattered and distrustful.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
Reports on civic space, media and digital surveillance document the costs of organizing, and opposition studies show the consequences of fragmentation and poor coordination. The YIHR shows how targeting a regional school increases the risk of connecting young people across the border, while FemPlatz monitors how attacks on privacy and reputation make it difficult, but not necessarily interrupted, for women.
The association requires visibility, a secure channel, trust and agreement on the minimum. The government prevents it when it attacks precisely these connections between people.
Yes multiple sources cover various obstacles, although none alone explains all the failures of the opposition.
Oppositional divisions can arise from real ideological and personal conflicts. State pressure reinforces them, but does not relieve the organizers of responsibility for strategy and trust.
Broad association is not always enough. Too large an alliance can lose a common goal, discipline or ability to govern if it wins.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Svolik, M. W. (2012), The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Svolik shows the basic problem of any authoritarian government: people who are excluded from government can become a serious threat to it if they manage to organize themselves. Therefore, the regime combines repression and co-optation to make it difficult to create a sufficiently large and organized opposition but the book explains more why organized opposition is a problem for the regime than all the concrete ways in which its connection is prevented.
comparing several countries or cases
Schedler, A. (2013), The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Schedler shows that in an electoral autocracy, the struggle is not only for the votes but also for the rules of the political game. The government is trying to keep the opposition weak and divided enough that it cannot easily turn the elections into a real threat, while the opposition is trying to coordinate the protest and the electoral strategy despite these restrictions.
comparing several countries or cases
Gamboa, L. (2022), Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gamboa shows how much it can help the regime when its opponents manage to narrow the political space or lead them to strategies that isolate them from potential allies. The opposition better preserves the possibility of joint resistance when it chooses goals and methods that can bring together a wider circle of actors and do not give the authorities an easy reason to close the system further.
comparing several countries or cases
Bunce, V. J. i Wolchik, S. L. (2011), Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Bounce and Wolchik show how dangerous it is for an authoritarian leader when until then separated opposition actors, civil society and election observers connect around a common strategy. It is precisely such coordination that has enabled the opposition in more post-communist cases to turn unfair elections into a real opportunity to change power.
Explain how the system works
Kuran, T. (1991), „Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989“, World Politics 44(1): 7–48.
- Contribution to this answer
- The Koran shows that the government does not have to physically prevent people from meeting to make it difficult for them to come together: if people hide their true opinion because they expect the price of public opposition, each individual sees much less discontent than there really is. Thus, potential allies find it difficult to reveal each other until an event breaks that circle of silence.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
Domestic NGO monitoring of civic space - Verified 21.08.2026
Građanske inicijative. 2025. Udruženja građana — sužavanje prostora za delovanje 2024. Beograd: Građanske inicijative.
Civic Initiatives. 2025. Citizens’ Associations narrowing the space for action 2024. Belgrade: Civic Initiatives.
- What the source records
- Based on the standardized regional matrix and bi-weekly reports, 234 cases of violations of fundamental rights and freedoms were registered, with an increase in physical and verbal attacks and other pressures compared to the previous year.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that pressure on the organizers, surveillance, media isolation and opposition fragmentation leave dissatisfaction scattered and distrustful.
- Source limitation
- The records include documented and reported cases, and not a representative rate of all incidents in Serbia, while the organization at the same time has a clear role of protecting the civil space.
International Organization for Human Rights Forensic Research - Verified 21.08.2026
Amnesty International. 2024. A Digital Prison: Surveillance and the Suppression of Civil Society in Serbia. London: Amnesty International.
- What the source records
- The report documents cases of unlocking phones and installing spyware during police or security conversations, as well as consequences for civil society.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that pressure on the organizers, surveillance, media isolation and opposition fragmentation leave dissatisfaction scattered and distrustful.
- Source limitation
- Forensic findings are strong for the analyzed devices, but the number of cases is not a measure of distribution in the entire population; the authorities have disputed the allegations of illegal work.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Laštro, Claudia, i Florian Bieber. 2021. “The Performance of Opposition Parties in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Three Case Studies from the Western Balkans.” European Political Science 20(4): 617–629. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-021-00326-w
Laštro, Claudia, and Florian Bieber. 2021. “The Performance of Opposition Parties in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Three Case Studies from the Western Balkans.” European Political Science 20(4): 61729. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-021-0326-w
- What the source records
- The authors describe Serbia as a case with real opposition and elections, but with the terrain that is structurally tilted in favor of the authorities.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that pressure on the organizers, surveillance, media isolation and opposition fragmentation leave dissatisfaction scattered and distrustful.
- Source limitation
- The emphasis is on opposition strategies and regional comparison, not on all parts of the state apparatus.
Domestic NGOs analysis of the political crisis - Verified 21.08.2026
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. 2025. Political and Institutional Crisis in Serbia: Possible Scenarios. Belgrade: BCSP.
- What the source records
- The analysis describes mass mobilization and growing repression, but concludes that the size of the protests does not alone address the issue of organization, choice and division within the government.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that pressure on the organizers, surveillance, media isolation and opposition fragmentation leave dissatisfaction scattered and distrustful.
- Source limitation
- Scenario analysis is time-sensitive and does not predict the future; it is based on information available until November 2025.
Domestic NGOs exploratory qualitative research - Verified 21.08.2026
FemPlatz. 2025. Između megafona i tišine: žene u borbi za promene. Pančevo: FemPlatz.
FemPlatz. 2025. Between megaphone and silence: women in the fight for change. Pančevo: FemPlatz.
- What the source records
- Shows the costs of organizing women, attacks on privacy and attempts to discredit, but also networks that overcome these costs.
- Claim it supports
- Gives a concrete example of how the authorities attack the ties needed for association, not just an individual protest request.
- Source limitation
- The sample is not representative, the research is exploratory, and the database of incidents is not intentionally complete; the findings show patterns and experiences, not their frequency in the entire population.
Domestic NGOs documented case study - Verified 21.08.2026
Inicijativa mladih za ljudska prava. 2026. Dosije Hrvatska II: Proterivanje, targetiranje i drugi primeri kršenja ljudskih prava građana i građanki Hrvatske u Srbiji. Beograd: YIHR Srbija.
Youth Initiative for Human Rights. 2026. File Croatia II: Expulsion, targeting and other examples of violations of human rights of Croatian citizens in Serbia. Belgrade: YIHR Serbia.
- What the source records
- Shows that declaring a regional school an “instruction” and participants to foreign agents increases the personal risk of regional co-operation.
- Claim it supports
- Supports the claim that targeting breaks ties between young people and organizations and makes future association difficult.
- Source limitation
- It documents certain affected persons and the media pattern; it does not show that all foreign citizens are treated equally or that Serbia systematically persecutes its own critics abroad.
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