Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
How do authoritarian states help one another with money, technology, and political protection?
Authoritarian states can give each other what reduces the cost of survival: loans without democratic conditions, surveillance equipment, police and military training, intelligence, energy, friendly election observers and diplomatic protection in international bodies.
Such assistance allows the authorities to survive the loss of Western support, more accurately monitor opponents or present disputed elections as recognized. It is important and symbolic support a message to people within the system that the regime is not isolated and has a reserve partner. But authoritarian states are not natural and permanent allies; they can have opposing interests, seek expensive political or economic favors and withdraw assistance. That is why a concrete flow of money, technology and protection should be monitored, as well as conditions are given.
Serbia maintains close political and economic relations with authoritarian states as well. China provides loans, infrastructure and security technology, Russia provides energy, media influence and diplomatic support around Kosovo, while the domestic government shows that these relations are not dependent only on the democratic conditions of the EU. Such cooperation can have a legitimate economic purpose, but it becomes the backbone of the authoritarian government when the contracts remain secret, the surveillance weakens or the partner provides technology and protection without the conditions of rights.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
Reports of the European Commission, BCSP and international technical researchers record political ties, non-transparent agreements and imports of surveillance technology from authoritarian environments. The report “Serbia vs. Falun Gong” provides a rare domestic case in which the YIHR links police restrictions to the authorities’ efforts to protect relations with official Beijing.
The external partner reduces the cost of domestic repression or mismanagement when it provides money, equipment and a diplomatic alternative without a claim of responsibility.
Yes to the existence of channels and risks; not every cooperation is evidence of mutual authoritarian assistance.
Credit, trade or diplomatic support are not harmful by definition. It is necessary to check the conditions, transparency, public benefit, data protection and the possibility of domestic control.
Authoritarian states are not natural friends and their interests conflict. Assistance can be expensive, conditioned or withdrawn when the relationship changes.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Tansey, O. (2016), The International Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Tansey shows that the survival of authoritarian power can be seriously dependent on international relations: external actors can give it money, political support and other resources that change the balance of power between a leader, his allies and opponents. Authoritarian power therefore does not have to produce all the resources for its own survival at home.
Comparison of International Organizations
Debre, M. J. (2022), „Clubs of Autocrats: Regional Organizations and Authoritarian Survival“, The Review of International Organizations 17(3): 485–511.
- Contribution to this answer
- Debre shows a very concrete form of mutual protection: membership in regional organizations with many authoritarian members statistically increases the chance of the regime to survive the democratic challenge. Such organizations can give political legitimacy, additional resources and protection from external interference at the moment of crisis.
comparing several countries or cases
Ambrosio, T. (2009), Authoritarian Backlash: Russian Resistance to Democratization in the Former Soviet Union, Ashgate.
- Contribution to this answer
- “In the post-Soviet space, Ambrosio shows that Russia has not only defended its own authoritarian order, but has supported allied authoritarian regimes, undermined democratic changes in the neighbourhood, and cooperated with other states to weaken regional pressure for democratization.
comparing several countries or cases
Feldstein, S. (2021), The Rise of Digital Repression: How Technology Is Reshaping Power, Politics, and Resistance, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Feldstein shows how digital repression is gaining international infrastructure: countries do not have to develop the technology of surveillance, filtering and monitoring on their own, but can buy and adapt it. That is why technological assistance can increase the repressive capacity of the regime just as real as money or diplomatic protection.
data from a large number of countries
Escribà-Folch, A. i Wright, J. (2015), Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Escrib-Folch and Wright show the other side of international aid and pressure: external resources and coercion change the regime’s ability to buy support, finance repression and keep allies. The effect depends on whether the regime is personal, party or military the same external coup does not produce the same political result everywhere.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
Domestic NGOs research report - Verified 21.08.2026
Pejić Nikić, Jelena, i Predrag Petrović. 2024. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens. Beograd: Beogradski centar za bezbednosnu politiku. https://doi.org/10.55042/ZHSW9821
Pejić Nikić, Jelena, and Predrag Petrović. 2024. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens. Belgrade: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. https://doi.org/10.55042/ZHSW9821
- What the source records
- The report concludes that the structures in the police, services, military and surveillance system help to maintain the captured state and that the change requires more than one person to be replaced.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that authoritarian partners can reduce the price of domestic control by giving credit, technology and a diplomatic alternative without the conditions of rights and transparency.
- Source limitation
- The work starts from the concept of the captured state and is aimed at security and recommendations for reform, so its framework should be read together with wider and methodologically different sources.
University laboratory technical research - Verified 21.08.2026
Citizen Lab. 2021. Pegasus vs. Predator: Dissident’s Doubly-Infected iPhone Reveals Cytrox Mercenary Spyware. Toronto: Munk School, University of Toronto.
- What the source records
- Scans have listed Serbia among the likely users of Predator infrastructure, showing the international market of tools that give countries secret surveillance capabilities.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that authoritarian partners can reduce the price of domestic control by giving credit, technology and a diplomatic alternative without the conditions of rights and transparency.
- Source limitation
- The network infrastructure indicates a likely user, but it does not prove itself who used the tool in Serbia, against whom and with what legal basis.
Official international monitoring - Verified 21.08.2026
European Commission. 2025. Serbia 2025 Report. Commission Staff Working Document. Brussels: European Commission.
- What the source records
- The report notes weak election conditions, limited parliamentary scrutiny, strong political pressure on the judiciary and concerns that the president is in practice directing decision-making beyond the constitutional idea.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that authoritarian partners can reduce the price of domestic control by giving credit, technology and a diplomatic alternative without the conditions of rights and transparency.
- Source limitation
- The report is related to the EU accession process and describes a certain period; it does not represent a scientific causal study or a uniform assessment of the type of regime.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Kakarnias, Theofanis. 2025. “Decoding Serbia’s Democratic Backsliding: EU Conditionality Meets Domestic Realities.” European Political Science 24(3): 293–312. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-025-00518-8
Kakarnias, Theofanis. 2025. “Decoding Serbia’s Democratic Backsliding: EU Conditioning Meets Domestic Realities.” European Political Science 24(3): 293–312. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-025-00518-8
- What the source records
- Process monitoring indicates that the internal interests, the issue of territorial integrity and the uncertainty of EU membership are mutually reinforcing.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that authoritarian partners can reduce the price of domestic control by giving credit, technology and a diplomatic alternative without the conditions of rights and transparency.
- Source limitation
- The paper explains part of the cause and the external environment, and does not offer a complete classification of the regime.
Domestic NGOs documented case study - Verified 21.08.2026
Inicijativa mladih za ljudska prava. 2025. Srbija vs. „Falun Gong“: čelično (ne)prijateljstvo. Beograd: YIHR Srbija.
Youth Initiative for Human Rights. 2025. Serbia vs. “Falun Gong”: steel (non)friendship. Belgrade: YIHR Serbia.
- What the source records
- Linking the treatment of Falun Gong by the domestic police with the political importance of Serbia-China relations.
- Claim it supports
- Gives a concrete example of how an authoritarian external partner can receive political protection that affects the rights of people in Serbia.
- Source limitation
- The conclusion on the political motive is the finding of the YIHR based on interviews, documents and the pattern of conduct, not a legal court ruling on the accountability of institutions.
Is a relevant source missing? Send it to us.
Suggest a source or report an error in this answer →