Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
Why does an authoritarian government need elections at all?
Authoritarian authorities are used for much more than counting votes. They show where the government is weak, they force local officials to prove how many people they can start, help divide the position and benefit, and create the image that the government has the right to govern.
The election campaign also reveals who is ready to oppose, who can finance the opposition and what topics bring together dissatisfied citizens. But the elections are not completely harmless to the government: they give the opposition a common date, a reason for association and the opportunity to show that the support of the government is not as much as it presents itself. Therefore, the government usually wants enough competition to make the elections useful and convincing, but not so much that the outcome becomes completely uncertain.
Elections in Serbia do not just serve to win a mandate. They show the number of supporters, launch a party network, reveal where support is weak, share functions and access to resources and allow the government to be presented as an expression of the will of the majority. That is why elections are held often and when conditions are unequal: victory gives both domestic and international legitimacy that an open ban on competition could not provide.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
Serbia has had five parliamentary elections and a number of other elections since 2012, while monitoring at the same time records the dominant advantage of the government, pressures and misuse of public resources.
Elections give information, organization and justification to the authorities; they still leave room for the opposition and citizens to measure support, monitor the process and sometimes threaten the government.
Yes frequent elections with persistently unequal conditions clearly show the multiple function of voting.
Frequent elections are not authoritarian in themselves. The problem arises when they are called and shaped by the government so that it uses the moment of its advantage and retains control over the terms of the campaign.
Elections do not have the same purpose in every system and every moment. The same choice can help the authorities, but at the same time make it more vulnerable.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
review more research
Gandhi, J. i Lust-Okar, E. (2009), „Elections under Authoritarianism“, Annual Review of Political Science 12: 403–422.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gandhi and Lust-Okar explain why the authoritarian government organizes elections even though it knows it doesn’t have to lose them elections give it the appearance of legitimacy, show where support is weak, but at the same time give the opposition an opportunity to organize.
comparing several countries or cases
Schedler, A. (2013), The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “Schedler shows how electoral autocracy is trying to keep uncertainty under control: the government wants enough choice to get legitimacy and information, but not enough uncertainty to really risk a shift.
Explain how the system works
Magaloni, B. (2006), Voting for Autocracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Magaloni shows how the dominant party uses elections to measure support, distribute awards and maintain the belief that the regime is strong enough to be worth staying by its side. Elections therefore also help the co-ordination of the ruling coalition.
Detailed analysis of one or several cases
Blaydes, L. (2011), Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Blaydes shows that controlled elections can serve the regime as a way to measure the ability and loyalty of local elites and decide who to give access to positions and rents. The electoral match thus performs tasks other than democratic change of government.
data from a large number of countries
Miller, M. K. (2015), „Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development since 1815“, British Journal of Political Science 45(3): 501–530.
- Contribution to this answer
- Miller gives an important counterweight: the choices that autocracy introduces for its own survival can eventually build parties, expectations and organizational capabilities that later facilitate democratization. The institution can therefore also produce consequences that the regime did not want.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Castaldo, Antonino. 2020. “Back to Competitive Authoritarianism? Democratic Backsliding in Vučić’s Serbia.” Europe-Asia Studies 72(10): 1617–1638. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1817860
Castaldo, Antonino. 2020. “Back to Competitive Authoritarianism? Democratic Backsliding in Vučić’s Serbia.” Europe-Asia Studies 72(10): 161738. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1817860
- What the source records
- The author concludes that Serbia under Vucic has returned to competitive authoritarianism through gradual rather than abrupt regime change.
- Claim it supports
- Claiming that the government is using elections for legitimacy, information and controlled competition, even though the conditions are not equal.
- Source limitation
- The classification depends on the thresholds chosen and the data for the most part precedes the 2020-2025 elections.
Official election monitoring - Verified 21.08.2026
OSCE/ODIHR. 2024. Republic of Serbia: Early Parliamentary Elections, 17 December 2023 — Election Observation Mission Final Report. Warsaw: OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.
- What the source records
- The monitoring mission noted the real choice of political alternatives, but also the decisive participation of the president, the systemic advantages of the government, media bias, pressures and misuse of public resources.
- Claim it supports
- Claiming that the government is using elections for legitimacy, information and controlled competition, even though the conditions are not equal.
- Source limitation
- Proves the quality of one electoral process, not independently the entire type of regime or all the events after February 2024.
Domestic NGO ten-year monitoring synthesis - Verified 21.08.2026
CRTA. 2026. A Decade of Election Observation: Is Everything the Same, Worse, or Better? Beograd: CRTA.
- What the source records
- “The synthesis concludes that the key electoral problems have not been solved and that many have deepened, with a ten-year deletion of the border between the state and the ruling party.
- Claim it supports
- Claiming that the government is using elections for legitimacy, information and controlled competition, even though the conditions are not equal.
- Source limitation
- It is a short institutional retrospective, not a new methodological report; the claims should be checked in the individual election reports on which the synthesis is based.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Bieber, Florian. 2018. “Patterns of Competitive Authoritarianism in the Western Balkans.” East European Politics 34(3): 337–354. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2018.1490272
- What the source records
- The paper explains that modern regimes in the region survive through formal elections, weak institutions, informal control and external legitimacy, but are not the same as regimes from the 1990s.
- Claim it supports
- Claiming that the government is using elections for legitimacy, information and controlled competition, even though the conditions are not equal.
- Source limitation
- The regional comparison does not provide equally detailed evidence for every institution in Serbia.
Reviewed scientific paper analysis of election strategies - Viewed full open work, method, findings and bibliographic record
Bursać, Dejan, and Dušan Vučićević. 2025. “Electioneering Strategies in the Hybrid Regime: Another Regular Snap Election in Serbia.” New Perspectives 33(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X241308429
- What the source records
- Follow the opportunistic call for early elections after 2012 and how elections extend the mandate and manage political risk.
- Claim it supports
- “It supports that the frequent elections of the authorities also serve to choose the moment, to mobilize and restore legitimacy, not just to count the votes.
- Source limitation
- The motive is analytically derived from the form and public events; not every internal decision to call an election is known.
Reviewed academic election analysis - Full paper, bibliography, election data and conclusion
Ilić, Vujo, and Gazela Pudar Draško. 2022. “2022 Elections in Serbia: The Return of the Opposition?” Contemporary Southeastern Europe 9(2): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.25364/02.9:2022.2.1
Ilić, Vujo, and Gazela Pudar Draško. 2022. “2022 Elections in Serbia: The Return of the Opposition?” Contemporary Southeastern Europe 9(2): 1. https://doi.org/10.25364/02.9:2022.2.1
- What the source records
- He describes the elections as an almost annual political ritual and shows how the boycott of 2020 and the return of 2022 changed the representation of the opposition.
- Claim it supports
- Shows that elections simultaneously strengthen the dominant party and open up institutional space to the opposition.
- Source limitation
- Two cycles do not give a general rule for every future choice.
Domestic NGOs multi-cycle election monitoring and dispute analysis - Reviewed full report, method, dispute tables and recommendations
CeSID. 2024. Oko izbora 24. Beograd: Centar za slobodne izbore i demokratiju.
CeSID. 2024. Around the elections 24. Belgrade: Centre for Free Elections and Democracy.
- What the source records
- In one report, it links the 2023 and 2024 elections, political context, administration, disputes, and results.
- Claim it supports
- Supports that repeated elections produce information, mobilization and legal legitimacy even when confidence in conditions is low.
- Source limitation
- CeSID does not determine the internal motive of the authorities for each election call.
Official International Special Election Assessment - Review of the final report, method and political context
OSCE/ODIHR. 2020. Republic of Serbia: Parliamentary Elections, 21 June 2020 — Special Election Assessment Mission Final Report. Warsaw: OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.
- What the source records
- He documents the 2020 election cycle with a broad opposition boycott and a parliament that is almost without opposition representation.
- Claim it supports
- Gives a concrete case in which the elections enabled the renewal of the formal mandate despite reduced competition.
- Source limitation
- Pandemic cycle and special assessment; same ODIHR manufacturer as D04.
Official international election monitoring - Full official report reviewed
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). 2024. Observation of the Early Parliamentary Elections in Serbia (17 December 2023). Doc. 15895.
- What the source records
- PACE records the frequency of early elections and warns about the consequences for the stability of institutions and election conditions.
- Claim it supports
- Independently affirms that election time can be the political resource of the ruling majority.
- Source limitation
- Observers evaluate publicly visible patterns, not secret motives of decision.
International expert report - Verified 21.08.2026
Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2026. BTI 2026 Serbia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung.
Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2026. BTI 2026 Serbia Country Report. Gtersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung.
- What the source records
- The wider political transformation of Serbia is associated with the dominant party, personalization and regular elections in weakened competition.
- Claim it supports
- Places the legitimate function of elections in a wider regime pattern.
- Source limitation
- The Earth Expert Assessment is not a specific study of the reasons for calling each election.
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