Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
What happens when people no longer believe that reporting a problem, voting, or speaking out can change anything?
When people do not believe that the application, vote or public advocacy can bring a result, they stop spending time and taking risks. The problem is less reported, fewer people come to meetings, the elections look solved in advance, and the institution gets less data and pressure to fix something.
The government then presents the absence of a reaction as proof that there is no problem or that the citizens support the existing situation. Thus, the sense of futility confirms itself. This is not the same as indifference: one can be deeply dissatisfied, but reasonably estimate that an individual move will not help him. To distinguish impotence from indifference, one should ask not only if someone is participating, but what he expects to happen if he tries and what price he expects to fail.
When the report of an attack or corruption for years has no outcome, when the recommendation of the supervisory body remains unexecuted and the elections do not change the unequal conditions, people stop expecting their proceedings to have consequences. In Serbia, this is seen in low trust in institutions and the testimonies of citizens who do not report pressure because they fear the consequences or do not believe that they will be protected. Silence then is not indifference, but a learned assessment is action.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
Surveys of public opinion, political pressures and legal aid record distrust, fear of retaliation and poor expected effectiveness of institutions.
The system also gets obedience without constant punishment when people give up on registration, voting or association in advance because they do not see a reliable path from voice to change.
Yes the findings confirm the demobilizing pattern, but the reasons for abstinence and silence are not the same in all people.
Non-participation can have many reasons, including satisfaction, lack of time or political offer. Not all silence must be interpreted as fear or hopelessness.
Someone can be less active due to lack of time, money or because he is satisfied. Therefore, one should distinguish the feeling of futility from ordinary indifference.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
joint analysis of results of many studies
Oser, J., Grinson, A., Boulianne, S. i Halperin, E. (2022), „How Political Efficacy Relates to Online and Offline Political Participation: A Multilevel Meta-analysis“, Political Communication 39(5): 607–633.
Oser, J., Grinson, A., Boulianne, S. i Halperin, E. (2022), "How Political Efficacy Relates to Online and Offline Political Participation: A Multilevel Meta-analysis", Political Communication 39(5): 607–633.
- Contribution to this answer
- A meta-analysis of 48 studies, with more than 51,000 respondents from 28 countries, finds that the sense of political effectiveness is associated with both online and offline political participation: people who believe more that they can understand politics and influence it participate more often. The work shows a strong connection, but does not prove that just raising this feeling automatically produces action.
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Miller, D. T. (2023), „A Century of Pluralistic Ignorance: What We Have Learned About Its Origins, Forms, and Consequences“, Frontiers in Social Psychology 1.
- Contribution to this answer
- Miller shows an additional problem: one can mistakenly believe that his attitude is unusual or lonely because other people also do not show what they really mean. Then the reason for inactivity is not only “nothing can be changed”, but also the wrong impression that there are not enough other people to support the change.
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Kuran, T. (1995), Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, Harvard University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “The Koran shows how the expected price of public opinion produces a vicious circle: people hide discontent, that is why others see less opposition than they actually exist, and they have even less reason to take risks and get involved in public.
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Han, H., Baggetta, M. i Oser, J. (2024), „Organizing and Democracy: Understanding the Possibilities for Transformative Collective Action“, Annual Review of Political Science 27: 245–262.
- Contribution to this answer
- Han, Baggetta and Oser show why the very desire to change is not enough: a permanent political ability arises through organizations that build relationships, skills, leadership and joint ability to act. When such a structure does not exist, individual dissatisfaction becomes much more difficult to collective power.
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Gerschewski, J. (2023), The Two Logics of Autocratic Rule, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gerschewski shows that some autocracy survives precisely through depoliticization: instead of constantly mobilizing citizens, they try to keep them satisfied, passive and out of politics. For this question it is useful because it shows that political passivity can be the way the system works, and not just personal indifference of citizens.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
Domestic NGOs representative public opinion - Verified 21.08.2026
CRTA i Democracy Action Lab. 2026. Veruju u demokratiju, ne veruju u vlast: istraživanje javnog mnjenja u Srbiji. Beograd: CRTA.
CRTA and Democracy Action Lab. 2026. They believe in democracy, they do not believe in government: public opinion research in Serbia. Belgrade: CRTA.
- What the source records
- Six out of ten citizens consider democracy the best system, but the same share estimates that democracy in Serbia does not work; trust in the main political institutions is about one-third.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that mistrust, fear of retaliation, and expectation that the institution will not react can turn discontent into silence and resignation.
- Source limitation
- The survey measures attitudes at a time of great political mobilization and cannot explain on its own why people support different, sometimes contradictory values at the same time.
Domestic NGOs qualitative field research - Verified 21.08.2026
CRTA. 2023. Mreža političkih pritisaka u centrima za socijalni rad. Beograd: CRTA.
CRTA. 2023. Network of political pressures in centers for social work. Belgrade: CRTA.
- What the source records
- Testimonials describe centers as points in a hierarchical network in which business, contract and assistance can be linked to political loyalty and electoral mobilization.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that mistrust, fear of retaliation, and expectation that the institution will not react can turn discontent into silence and resignation.
- Source limitation
- The sample is qualitative and anonymous; the findings reveal mechanisms and patterns, but do not measure their frequency in all centers.
Domestic NGOs annual report of legal aid - Verified 21.08.2026
Komitet pravnika za ljudska prava — YUCOM. 2024. YUCOM 2022–2024, godišnji izveštaj br. 11–12. Beograd: YUCOM.
Lawyers’ Committee for Human Rights YUCOM. 2024. YUCOM 202224, annual report No. 11. Belgrade: YUCOM.
- What the source records
- The report documents the gap between judicial reforms and citizens’ experience, the pressure on independence and the obstacles for vulnerable groups to receive effective legal protection.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that mistrust, fear of retaliation, and expectation that the institution will not react can turn discontent into silence and resignation.
- Source limitation
- It is the report of the organization that provides legal aid and advocates reforms; the choice of cases is not representative for all courts and all disputes.
Domestic NGO monitoring of civic space - Verified 21.08.2026
Građanske inicijative. 2025. Udruženja građana — sužavanje prostora za delovanje 2024. Beograd: Građanske inicijative.
Civic Initiatives. 2025. Citizens’ Associations narrowing the space for action 2024. Belgrade: Civic Initiatives.
- What the source records
- Based on the standardized regional matrix and bi-weekly reports, 234 cases of violations of fundamental rights and freedoms were registered, with an increase in physical and verbal attacks and other pressures compared to the previous year.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that mistrust, fear of retaliation, and expectation that the institution will not react can turn discontent into silence and resignation.
- Source limitation
- The records include documented and reported cases, and not a representative rate of all incidents in Serbia, while the organization at the same time has a clear role of protecting the civil space.
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