Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
Can authoritarian governments still deliver economic growth and good public services?
Yes. Authoritarian power sometimes builds professional administration, invests in infrastructure, health care or education in the long run and ensures rapid economic growth. The absence of political competition can make it easier to implement a long plan, but at the same time removes important ways to detect and correct the mistake early.
That is why the results are very different: some authorities have been growing for decades, while others have been producing corruption, wrong big investments and sudden crises, the price of which citizens cannot politically charge. Good service or growth is not proof that the government has the right to unlimited power, just as a bad result is not the only sign of authoritarianism. The economic performance, the distribution of benefits, the reliability of data and the ability of citizens to seek accountability when the policy fails should be measured separately.
Authoritarian backwardness does not mean that the economy has to constantly fall or that every public service ceases to work. Serbia has had growth, investment, infrastructure and successful digital services in some years, while at the same time the electoral conditions and control of the government have weakened. The result can be real, but it does not solve the question of who decides, who pays the price and whether failure can be freely criticized and corrected.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
The World Bank is recording growth and development progress, while V-Dem, the European Commission and domestic monitoring in the same period are recording democratic decline, poor control and inequality of access to institutions.
Good government is not only measured by the number of kilometers of the road or the rate of growth. It is important that contracts are verifiable, benefits are widely distributed and that institutions can detect the mistake and change policy without political permission.
Yes Serbia shows that the economic result and authoritarian concentration can occur together.
It cannot be concluded from the growth that authoritarianism is the cause of success, nor from the regression that every project is bad. Special economic and institutional comparisons are needed for the cause.
A comparison of average results can hide unsuccessful authorities that did not last long. Economic growth is not proof that the government or its rules are democratically justified.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
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Geddes, B., Wright, J. i Frantz, E. (2018), How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Geddes, Wright and Frantz show how much authoritarian regimes differ from each other in who governs, how power is organized and how much is concentrated around one man. For this issue, they are important primarily as a warning that from the label itself “autocracy” we can not infer how capable the state will be but the book is not a direct survey of economic growth or public services.
Development and verification of measurement methods
Hanson, J. K. i Sigman, R. (2021), „Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research“, Journal of Politics 83(4): 1495–1510.
- Contribution to this answer
- Hanson and Sigman show that the “capable state” is not one thing: in particular, they measure the state’s ability to collect resources, to enforce order, and to administer policies and services. These capabilities are connected, but they are not the same the state can be much more successful in one job than in another.
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Dahlström, C. i Lapuente, V. (2022), „Comparative Bureaucratic Politics“, Annual Review of Political Science 25: 43–63.
- Contribution to this answer
- Dahlstrm and Lapuente review how different ways of organizing bureaucracy affect the three things that interest us here economic development, corruption and the quality of public services. They show that the result depends on the relationship between political control, professional autonomy, rules and management freedom, and not just on the type of regime.
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Pepinsky, T. B., Pierskalla, J. H. i Sacks, A. (2017), „Bureaucracy and Service Delivery“, Annual Review of Political Science 20: 249–268.
- Contribution to this answer
- Pepinsky, Pierscalla and Sacks show why good public services are not created simply by the state hiring more people or spending more money: the way the bureaucracy is organized, its relationship with the political top, and how well the officials are really connected to the people to whom they provide the services.
comparing several countries or cases
Svolik, M. W. (2012), The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Svolik explains the political problems that authoritarian authorities must constantly solve control of society and power sharing within the regime. This helps us understand why resources and institutions are not necessarily organized according to what would be best for citizens, but the book is not immediate proof that autocracy can or cannot produce growth and good services.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
International Development Institution Economic Diagnostics - Verified 21.08.2026
World Bank. 2024. Serbia Country Economic Memorandum: Fostering Growth Through a More Diversified Industrial Policy. Washington, DC: World Bank.
- What the source records
- The analysis acknowledges macroeconomic progress and investment-driven growth, but warns against dependence on subsidies, poor productivity and the need for stronger domestic institutions and competition.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that economic growth and some good services can exist simultaneously with democratic decline and poor cost control.
- Source limitation
- Economic diagnostics does not measure authoritarianism and cannot interpret every subsidy as political control.
Official international monitoring - Verified 21.08.2026
European Commission. 2025. Serbia 2025 Report. Commission Staff Working Document. Brussels: European Commission.
- What the source records
- The report notes weak election conditions, limited parliamentary scrutiny, strong political pressure on the judiciary and concerns that the president is in practice directing decision-making beyond the constitutional idea.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that economic growth and some good services can exist simultaneously with democratic decline and poor cost control.
- Source limitation
- The report is related to the EU accession process and describes a certain period; it does not represent a scientific causal study or a uniform assessment of the type of regime.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Pavlović, Dušan. 2020. “The Political Economy Behind the Gradual Demise of Democratic Institutions in Serbia.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 20(1): 19–39. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2019.1672929
Pavlović, Dušan. 2020. “The Political Economy Behind the Gradual Demise of Democratic Institutions in Serbia.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 20(1): 1939. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2019.1672929
- What the source records
- The work links the weakening of democracy with the rules and economic incentives that enable the authorities to turn public resources into a political advantage.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that economic growth and some good services can exist simultaneously with democratic decline and poor cost control.
- Source limitation
- It is a causal interpretation of a long process; it does not cover developments beyond 2019 and does not exclude other explanations.
International scientific base and report - Verified 21.08.2026
Nord, Marina, David Altman, Tiago Fernandes, Ana Good God, i Staffan I. Lindberg. 2026. Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling the Democratic Era? University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute, dataset v16.
- What the source records
- Regimes of the World measure ranks Serbia 2025 as an electoral autocracy and records an ongoing episode of autocracy.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that economic growth and some good services can exist simultaneously with democratic decline and poor cost control.
- Source limitation
- Categories depend on thresholds and expert assessments; the report itself warns of measurable uncertainty, and RoW typology is not the official position of V-Dem project management bodies.
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