AUTHORITARIANISM - RESEARCH ATLASAVtokratija

How the authoritarian system works in Serbia

General research connected to documented examples, findings, and sources from Serbia.

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100questions

20areas

148academic works

130Serbia sources

SIX ENTRIES INTO THE MATRIX

Which question do you want to start with?

Concrete questions are the starting point. The other 94 are available through the map of 20 areas.

22How can elections be unfair if no one stole my vote?What elections are for when they are not fair 62Why do people use connections even when they believe connections should not be necessary?Why people stay silent, adapt, and think they are alone 48What happens to institutions when people are hired and promoted mainly for political loyalty?How the system changes public administration and public services 33How does a court lose its independence while remaining independent on paper?How law, courts, and parliament are used 49Why do employees find it harder to say 'no' when their job or term continually depends on a new government decision?How the system changes public administration and public services 36How can an institution be captured if no one ordered every employee what to do?How independent institutions are neutralized and crises are used

MAP OF THE AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEM

Twenty areas guide you through the system as a whole.

Select an area to see why it matters and which five questions it opens.

01How to recognize authoritarian rule and distinguish its forms5 questions 02How democracy disappears step by step5 questions 03Who really rules and what happens after the leader5 questions 04Why the police, military, and security services obey5 questions 05What elections are for when they are not fair5 questions 06How the ruling party and local networks hold the system together5 questions 07How law, courts, and parliament are used5 questions 08How independent institutions are neutralized and crises are used5 questions 09How money, jobs, and state assistance preserve power5 questions 10How the system changes public administration and public services5 questions 11How those in power shape what people can learn5 questions 12How digital surveillance and bad news change power5 questions 13Why people stay silent, adapt, and think they are alone5 questions 14Why people support the government and how power is justified5 questions 15How associations, unions, schools, and churches are controlled5 questions 16How the system punishes and intimidates without open violence5 questions 17How people organize and when protest changes power5 questions 18How an authoritarian system falls and what remains afterward5 questions 19How authoritarian rulers use support from abroad5 questions 20How democracy is defended and rebuilt5 questions

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WHY THIS AREA MATTERS

How to recognize authoritarian rule and distinguish its forms

We first need to distinguish one bad decision from a system in which those in power become increasingly difficult to remove through elections or hold to account. These systems are not all alike, and they do not survive in the same way.

QUESTIONS IN THIS AREA

01How can we tell that this is not just one bad decision, but an authoritarian way of governing?02What is the difference between an authoritarian leader, the current government, and the system as a whole?03How can we distinguish authoritarian rule from populism, corruption, or simply bad governance?04Do all authoritarian governments operate in the same way?05Does it matter whether a government emerged through a coup, war, revolution, or the gradual weakening of democracy?

Research-based answerAUTLAS Research Base

Do all authoritarian governments operate in the same way?

Confidence in the conclusionwell substantiated

key academic works5

linked Serbia sources19

Period201226

ANSWER FROM THE MATRIX

Not all authoritarian authorities function the same, even when they similarly limit political competition and control of power. Somewhere the leader relies on a strong ruling party, somewhere on the army, the royal family, security services or a narrow personal circle, and somewhere there is an opposition that participates in elections under extremely unequal conditions.

It depends on who can stop the leader, how the positions and money are shared, how much open force is used and what happens when the leader leaves. That is why the same event protest, election defeat or economic crisis in different systems can produce completely different consequences. The markings help to ask the right questions, but they can not replace the description of the real power relations in a particular country.

SERBIA CASE STUDY

Example from SerbiaChecked 19 sources; 15 manufacturers

19 related sources; 15 groups of evidence producers; domestic NGOs/research producers: 7

Election monitoring shows that in Serbia the opposition participates in the elections and that political competition formally exists, but also that the conditions are not equal. The government has much greater media visibility, benefits from the benefits of the public function and state resources, while a part of voters and employees are exposed to pressures. This shows that authoritarian control does not have to abolish the elections: it is enough to permanently facilitate one side and make it harder for the other to win voters and take power.

How the finding is separated in the matrix

01Established fact

Domestic sources show that in Serbia there are elections, opposition, parliament, critical media, protests and organizations, but that inequality is produced differently: through public resources and pressures in elections, pronounced media dominance, weakening parliamentary oversight, political ties in the security sector and increasing the price of civic organizing.

02Our interpretation

This is different from a closed one-party or military dictatorship. Control is often achieved by selective application of existing rules and institutions, and not by their complete abolition, with different sectors using different mechanisms.

03Does it show the same process?

Yes domestic sources show multiple mechanisms within a competitive authoritarian form

04Important caveat or alternative explanation

The sector report speaks only about the area it follows, and documented incidents are not representative of each institution or citizen. The conclusion on the type of system therefore arises only when the sectoral findings intersect with scientific and comparative research.

LIMITS OF THE CONCLUSION

What the general answer does not allow us to conclude

Systems change and mix properties of multiple species. The label helps to compare, but never explains the whole country.

GENERAL RESEARCH BASE

Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.

A01

review more research

Geddes, B., Wright, J. i Frantz, E. (2018), How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press.

Contribution to this answer: Geddes, Wright and Frantz show that dictatorships differ in who founded them, how the government is organized, how power is shared and how the regime is personalized. These differences strongly affect their behavior and duration.

How the authoritarian system works in Serbia

Which question do you want to start with?

How to recognize authoritarian rule and distinguish its forms

How the finding is separated in the matrix

Geddes, B., Wright, J. i Frantz, E. (2018), How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press.

Wahman, M., Teorell, J. i Hadenius, A. (2013), „Authoritarian Regime Types Revisited: Updated Data in Comparative Perspective“, Contemporary Politics 19(1): 19–34.

Teorell, J. i Lindberg, S. I. (2019), „Beyond Democracy–Dictatorship Measures: A New Framework Capturing Executive Bases of Power, 1789–2016“, Perspectives on Politics 17(1): 66–84.

Brancati, D. (2014), „Democratic Authoritarianism: Origins and Effects“, Annual Review of Political Science 17: 313–326.

Svolik, M. W. (2012), The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press.

Bieber, Florian. 2018. “Patterns of Competitive Authoritarianism in the Western Balkans.” East European Politics 34(3): 337–354. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2018.1490272

Castaldo, Antonino. 2020. “Back to Competitive Authoritarianism? Democratic Backsliding in Vučić’s Serbia.” Europe-Asia Studies 72(10): 1617–1638. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1817860

Laštro, Claudia, i Florian Bieber. 2021. “The Performance of Opposition Parties in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Three Case Studies from the Western Balkans.” European Political Science 20(4): 617–629. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-021-00326-w

Nord, Marina, David Altman, Tiago Fernandes, Ana Good God, i Staffan I. Lindberg. 2026. Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling the Democratic Era? University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute, dataset v16.

Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2026. BTI 2026 Serbia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Burazer, Nikola. 2024. Serbia: Nations in Transit 2024 Country Report. Washington, DC: Freedom House.

Freedom House. 2026. Freedom in the World 2026: Serbia Country Report. Washington, DC: Freedom House.

CRTA. 2024. Final Election Observation Report – 2023. Beograd: CRTA Election Observation Mission.

CRTA. 2025. Media Monitoring of Political Pluralism: Government in Focus, Opposition Almost Invisible. Beograd: CRTA.

Otvoreni parlament. 2025. Godišnji izveštaj o radu XIV saziva Narodne skupštine, februar 2024 – april 2025. Beograd: CRTA.

Đokić, Katarina, Saša Đorđević, Marija Ignjatijević, Jelena Pejić Nikić i Predrag Petrović. 2020. Security Sector Capture in Serbia – An Early Study. Beograd: Beogradski centar za bezbednosnu politiku.

Beogradski centar za ljudska prava. 2026. Human Rights in Serbia 2025. Urednik Dušan Pokuševski. Beograd: Beogradski centar za ljudska prava.

Građanske inicijative. 2025. Udruženja građana — sužavanje prostora za delovanje 2024. Beograd: Građanske inicijative.

Cvijić, Srđan. 2018. When Law Doesn’t Rule: State Capture of the Judiciary, Prosecution, Police in Serbia. Open Society European Policy Institute, Transparentnost Srbija i CINS.

International IDEA. 2025. Serbia — The Global State of Democracy (GSoD) Democracy Tracker. Poslednje ažuriranje: septembar 2025.

Centre for Media Pluralism and Media Freedom (CMPF), European University Institute. 2026. Media Pluralism Monitor 2026: Serbia.

Asocijacija medija, AOM, NDNV, NUNS, Lokal pres i Slavko Ćuruvija fondacija. 2023. Strategija razvoja medijskog sistema Srbije (2020–2025) i njena implementacija: saznanja, stavovi i predlozi medijskih radnika. Beograd.

CRTA i Democracy Action Lab. 2026. Veruju u demokratiju, ne veruju u vlast: istraživanje javnog mnjenja u Srbiji. Beograd: CRTA.

Cvejić, Bojan, i ANEM. 2026. Indikatori stanja lokalnih medija u Srbiji za 2025. godinu: studija slučaja osam gradova i opština i jednog regiona.

Based on academic research

Practice documented in Serbia

Sources open to scrutiny

Why questions?

Focus on the system, not on blaming people

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