Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Academic research base
Why can the promise of order and stability make change seem more frightening than a bad present?
People do not only compare the bad present with a better future, but also with possible war, chaos, job loss or revenge of the winners. If society remembers the real crisis, such fear can be stronger than dissatisfaction with the everyday state. The government therefore presents itself as the only dam from danger, and each shift as a jump to the unknown.
It can further weaken institutions that would guarantee a peaceful transition, and then use the absence of these guarantees as an argument against change. Stability is a real public good and not every warning of manipulation. It is important to ask who produces the threat, whether there are verifiable protections for all parties and whether “order” means predictable rules or just the absence of visible conflict because opposition is too expensive.
In the public speech of Serbia, the government presents itself as a defense against chaos, war, economic breakdown and the return of irresponsible opposition. A citizen who depends on salary, pension or local service and the low probability of disruption may seem more dangerous than the known flaws of the current government. Stability is then not only a promise of order, but a warning that the shift could endanger everyday security.
How the finding is separated in the matrix
Analysis of populist and media speech is recorded by personalized attribution of stability to the leader and presentation of the opponent as a danger, while clientelism research shows the material dependence of the citizens.
People often avoid possible losses more strongly than they ask for uncertain profits. The government increases this tendency when institutions deliberately identify with themselves: ‘If we leave, the state stops’.
Yes elements of the message and dependency are documented, but the motive of each voter cannot be reduced to fear.
Stability concerns can be reasonable, especially in crises. Manipulation occurs when the government exaggerates the danger, withholds information and intentionally makes institutions dependent on one person.
Stability can be a real and important public good. One should still ask who produces danger, who pays the price of ‘order’ and whether there is a safer path to change.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
Explain how the system works
Linz, J. J. (2000), Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes, Lynne Rienner.
- Contribution to this answer
- Linz helps us understand why authoritarian government does not only survive on coercion: it limits political competition and the space of uncertainty around the shift of power, so the long-term absence of a real alternative can in itself change what citizens perceive as a normal and possible political order. But the book does not directly study the fear of change versus dissatisfaction with the current government.
comparing several countries or cases
Dukalskis, A. i Gerschewski, J. (2017), „What Autocracies Say (and What Citizens Hear): Proposing Four Mechanisms of Autocratic Legitimation“, Contemporary Politics 23(3): 251–268.
Dukalskis, A. i Gerschewski, J. (2017), "What Autocracies Say (and What Citizens Hear): Proposing Four Mechanisms of Autocratic Legitimation", Contemporary Politics 23(3): 251–268.
- Contribution to this answer
- Dukalskis and Gerschewski show that autocracies actively explain why they deserve power, and one of the possible foundations of legitimacy is the results and presentation of the existing system as one that works. This helps to understand the narrative “we bring order”, but the work does not test whether citizens are beginning to fear alternatives.
review more research
Gerschewski, J. (2023), The Two Logics of Autocratic Rule, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gerschewski shows that some autocracy survives by depoliticization: instead of constant ideological mobilization they offer results, technocratic governance and political passivity of citizens. Such a system can make the existing order known and predictable, but the book does not directly test the psychological calculation “badly known is safer than unknown change”.
comparing several countries or cases
Haggard, S. i Kaufman, R. R. (2016), Dictators and Democrats: Masses, Elites, and Regime Change, Princeton University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Haggard and Kaufman show that regime change depends much more on citizens’ dissatisfaction: the ability of people to organize, divide or co-operate among elites and institutions through which conflict takes place is important. That is why dissatisfaction in itself does not mean that change will become a real option but the book is not a study of fear of instability.
long-term direct monitoring of political life
Wedeen, L. (1999), Ambiguities of Domination: Politics, Rhetoric, and Symbols in Contemporary Syria, University of Chicago Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Wedeen shows how long-lasting obedience rituals can make certain political behavior everyday and expected even when people do not trust regime messages privately. This helps to understand the normalization of the existing order, but does not directly show that people perceive change as more dangerous because of it.
Sources supporting the Serbia example, with the claim they support and their limitations.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Stojiljković, Zoran, i Dušan Spasojević. 2018. “Populistički Zeitgeist u ‘proevropskoj’ Srbiji.” Politička misao 55(3): 104–128. https://doi.org/10.20901/pm.55.3.04
Stojiljković, Zoran, and Dušan Spasojević. 2018. “Populist Zeitgeist in ‘Pro-European’ Serbia.” Political Thought 55(3): 104–128. https://doi.org/10.20901/pm.55.3.04
- What the source records
- The paper shows that populism in Serbia has several forms and can be merged with a broad, ideologically expansive party.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that government personalizes stability and associates change with loss and chaos, while material dependence increases the credibility of that message.
- Source limitation
- He studies populism and parties, and does not independently prove that the political system is authoritarian.
Reviewed scientific work - Verified 21.08.2026
Vladisavljević, Nebojša, i Aleksandra Krstić. 2023. “Competitive Authoritarianism and Populism in Serbia Under Vučić in Political Cartoons.” Europe-Asia Studies 75(9): 1429–1452. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2022.2149700
Vladisavljević, Nebojša, and Aleksandra Krstić. 2023. “Competitive Authoritarianism and Populism in Serbia Under Vučić in Political Cartoons.” Europe-Asia Studies 75(9): 142952. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2022.2149700
- What the source records
- The paper shows how unequal political match, media freedom and populist personalization are presented together in public criticism of the authorities.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that government personalizes stability and associates change with loss and chaos, while material dependence increases the credibility of that message.
- Source limitation
- Caricatures are a critical cultural source and cannot replace the direct measurement of institutions or attitudes of the entire population.
Domestic NGOs qualitative field research - Verified 21.08.2026
CRTA. 2023. Mreža političkih pritisaka u centrima za socijalni rad. Beograd: CRTA.
CRTA. 2023. Network of political pressures in centers for social work. Belgrade: CRTA.
- What the source records
- Testimonials describe centers as points in a hierarchical network in which business, contract and assistance can be linked to political loyalty and electoral mobilization.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that government personalizes stability and associates change with loss and chaos, while material dependence increases the credibility of that message.
- Source limitation
- The sample is qualitative and anonymous; the findings reveal mechanisms and patterns, but do not measure their frequency in all centers.
Domestic NGOs systematic media monitoring - Verified 21.08.2026
CRTA. 2025. Media Monitoring of Political Pluralism: Government in Focus, Opposition Almost Invisible. Beograd: CRTA.
- What the source records
- Monitoring finds that more than half of the time intended for political actors went to the president, who had 354 live television broadcasts and almost exclusively neutral or positive treatment.
- Claim it supports
- The claim that government personalizes stability and associates change with loss and chaos, while material dependence increases the credibility of that message.
- Source limitation
- The sample includes the central news of five national TV stations, but does not measure all media, the entire program offer, the audience or the direct impact of such reporting on voting.
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